华北地区极端气候事件的时空变化规律分析  

Analysis on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Extreme Climate Events in North China

作　　者：王冀[1] 蒋大凯 张英娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气候中心,北京100089 [2]辽宁省气象局,沈阳110015

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2012年第2期166-173,共8页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金(2010-KF-06);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428506)

摘　　要：利用华北地区84个气象台站近50a(1961-2009年)资料,采用国际上通用的极端天气气候事件指数定义法计算华北地区极端气温和降水指数,并对极端气候指数时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明,华北地区年极端气温(最高、最低)呈明显上升趋势(P<0.05),且极端最低气温的上升幅度高于极端高温。1986年之后年极端最高气温的上升幅度相对较高,冷夜指数的减少趋势明显减弱,暖夜指数上升趋势增强(P<0.05)。空间分布上,极端暖事件(年极端最高气温、暖日指数)变化趋势的大值区位于内蒙古西部和山西大部,极端冷事件(年极端最低气温、冷夜指数)上升趋势最显著的为京津冀及山西东北部(P<0.05)。华北地区极端降水量、降水次数和降水强度均呈下降趋势。1986年之后极端降水次数、极端降水强度的减少趋势更加显著,冬季暴雪量、降雪次数和降雪强度均呈明显上升趋势(P<0.05)。极端降水量变化速率各地不同,其中华北南部(河北、山西等地)极端降水量呈减少趋势,京津地区存在极端降水减少的大值中心。极端降水次数由东向西呈逐渐增加趋势,山西中部上升趋势最显著,日最大降水量上升的高值中心位于内蒙古西部和山西北部,而下降的高值中心位于河北南部。Using 50 - year data from 80 stations in the northern area of China, the extreme temperatures and precipita- tion indexes were calculated, and the long-term trend was also analyzed. The results showed that both maximum and minimum temperatures in North China exhibited a significantly rising trend, with the former being less than the latter in amplitude. After climate abrupt, maximum temperature trend in North China rose significantly with cold night index （TN10） declining obviously, but warm night index （TN90）showing an ascendant trend. After climate mutations, TN10 also showed an obvious decreasing trend. That is, cold day index （TX10） declined, and warm day index （TX90） showed an ascendant trend. In terms of space distribution, maximum temperature large value was located in the west Inner Mogolia and the most areas of Shanxi province, whereas minimum temperature large value was in Bei- jing-Tianjin-Hebei and northeast Shanxi province. The extreme precipitation, rainfall frequency and precipitation in- tensity in North China tended to decline. Extreme rainfall, extreme precipitation mutation and extreme precipitation in- tensity showed a striking decreasing trend. Rainfall and rainfall intensity had the same return year of 16 years and 8 years. Strong snow quantity, frequency and intensity showed a clear rising trend. In North China, extreme precipitation was roughly distributed from the northwest-southeast to the north, while in southern North China （e. g. in Hebei province and Shanxi province） extreme precipitation reduced in Beijing-Tianjin region. Extreme precipitation frequency distribu- tion increased from the east to the west, with a most significant rising trend in the middle area of Shanxi province.

关 键 词：华北地区 极端气候 时空变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]