基于气象因子的朝阳大枣年景预报模型  

Forecast Model of Jujube Harvest in Chaoyang Based on Meteorological Factors

作　　者：张国林[1] 张富荣[1] 宗英飞[1] 冯雪菲[1] 戴海燕[1] 冯淑霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,朝阳122000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2012年第2期240-244,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目"农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用"(05ESN217400412)

摘　　要：选用朝阳市1954-2010年气象观测资料,结合该地区大枣产量及年景调研资料,用相关系数选取影响大枣收成的主要因子,应用多元线性回归方法建立大枣年景与气象因子的预报模型。结果表明,1月平均最低气温≤-20℃连续日数、6月连续阴天日数、6-8月连续无≥10mm降水日数、9月15-30日降水量等因子对大枣产量影响显著(P<0.05)。大枣年景预测模型经F检验,具有统计学意义,模型历史拟合率为81.8%。用该模型预测2009年和2010年大枣年景,均接近实际值。The annual harvest forecast model of Jujube in Chaoyang was established by using a multiple linear regres- sion method, based on selected meteorological factors from observed data from 1954 to 2010. The results showed that the significant affecting factors to Jujube were consistent days of the average minimum temperature ≤ - 20 °C in Janu- ary, consistent overcast days in June, consistent days of daily precipitation ≤ 10mm from June to August, and daily precipitation during 15 -30 September. The model fitting rate was 81.8% through F-test method. The predicted re- suits were close to the actual situation in 2009 and 2010.

关 键 词：大枣 年景 气象因子 预报模型 朝阳 

分 类 号：S665.1[农业科学—果树学] S165.27[农业科学—园艺学]