中国通货膨胀预期的结构和持久性  

The Research on the Structure and Persistent of Inflation Expectation in China

作　　者：王雅炯[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院 [2]中国农业银行

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第5期42-50,共9页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文通过改进的预期通货膨胀率模型,将城镇居民调查问卷中未来物价变动预期的定性数据,转换为有效的预期通货膨胀率。同时,本文对通货膨胀预期的性质进行了结构性分析,结果表明,核心通货膨胀内涵下的通货膨胀预期变动符合理性预期假说,食品价格内涵下的通货膨胀预期变动更具备适应性预期的特点。通货膨胀预期的持久性较差,实际核心通货膨胀对通货膨胀预期不具备持续影响,而来自食品因素的实际通货膨胀对通货膨胀预期有持久的影响,但通货膨胀预期对实际通货膨胀的反馈效果并不稳定。因此,在充分重视核心通货膨胀变动的基础上,货币政策的持续性和稳定性显得尤为重要。Using advanced Carlson-Parkin model,this paper converted the qualitative data to quantitative data from urban citizens survey on their expected future price changes.Furthermore,this paper made structural study on the nature of inflation expectation,which concluded that the changes of core inflation expectation was more consistent with the hypothesis of rational expectation,but the inflation expectation from the changes of food prices was consistent with adaptive expectation.The persistent of inflation expectation was weak and the actual core inflation expectation did not has persistent effect on the expectation,while the actual inflation from the changes of food price had.Additionally,feedback from the expectation to the actual inflation was not stable.Therefore,in term of the core inflation,the continuity and stability of monetary policy is particularly important.

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 Carlson-Parkin模型 结构分析 持久性 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]