第16届亚运会突发公共卫生事件风险识别与评估  

Risk identification and Assessment for Public Health Emergencies during 16th Asian Games

作　　者：肖新才[1] 丁鹏[1] 陈纯[1] 刘远[1] 王鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2012年第10期2467-2470,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广州市科技计划项目基金资助(2010U1-E00591)

摘　　要：目的科学评估潜在的公共卫生安全威胁、公共卫生服务脆弱性及卫生保障需求,确定亚运筹备阶段政府及相关部门风险管理工作重点,为实施风险管理和制定重大传染病疫情保障方案提供科学依据。方法采用经验判断、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议和风险矩阵分析等方法,结合管理学、社会学、流行病学和传染病学理论,对亚运会期间可能的突发公共卫生事件进行风险评估。结果确定了食物中毒事件、空气污染导致的公共卫生事件、传染病疫情事件、水污染导致的公共卫生事件、意外伤害事件和生化核恐怖袭击事件等6类19种可能对亚运会和亚残运会产生较大影响的公共卫生风险,列出风险矩阵,提出评估意见。结论亚运期间,霍乱、登革热、基孔肯雅热等传染病暴发疫情、水源水污染事件和生物性、化学性食物中毒事件是高风险突发公共卫生事件,需要加强监测预警,落实预防措施,做好应对的准备。OBJECTIVE To provide scientific evidence for implementing risk management,formulating the safeguarding plans for control and prevention of major infectious diseases,developing activities in public health safety and identifying the priorities in risk management associated with public health safety to support governments and relevant sectors in preparation for 16th Asian Games and Guangzhou 2010 Asican Para Games.METHODS Based on theories of management,sociology,epidemiology and lemology,judgment by experience,Delphi＇s expert consultation,expert review and risk matrix analysis were adopted to assess risk for public health emergencies during 16th Asian Games.RESULTS Major risks of 19 kinds of public health emergencies,which could seriously influence 16th Asian Games and Guangzhou 2010 Para Games,were identified and assessed,including food-poisoning,air and water pollution,outbreaks of infectious diseases,accidents and terrorist attacks,and risk matrix and assessment report were presented.CONCLUSION Water pollution incidents,food poisoning caused by pathogenic microorganisms or chemical toxins and infectious disease outbreaks such as Cholera,Dengue fever and Chikungunya fever are the high risk emergent events of public health during Guangzhou 2010 Asian Games.Relative measures for prevention and regulations should be enacted and the supervision should be strengthened.

关 键 词：风险识别 风险评估 突发公共卫生事件 亚运会 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]