数值预报产品的历史相似订正方法研究  

Correction of numeric weather prediction by similarity

作　　者：赵中军[1] 尚可政[2] 王玉国[1] 王式功[2] 程一帆[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军92493部队中心气象台 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第2期68-74,共7页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC53B02);国家行业专项项目(GYHY201106034;GYHY201006023);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(LZUJBKY-2012-123)

摘　　要：针对数值预报存在误差的基本事实,提出了一套利用历史相似资料订正数值预报的方案.利用2003-2008年T213 L31数值预报产品和1948-2007年的NCEP资料,建立了100～1 000 hPa等压面的高度场、温度场、风场、垂直速度场和水汽场的24～240 h预报的24 h变量订正方程.采用24 h变量相关系数和均方根误差两个指标,对2009-2010年的T213,L31高度场和温度场、数值预报产品的试应用订正效果进行了检验.结果表明:以24 h变量相关系数衡量,高度场和温度场预报订正效果都是正面的,预报时效为96～192 h,订正效果最明显;以均方根误差衡量,高度场和温度场预报订正效果同样是显著改进的;订正效果存在区域差异,高度场订正效果高纬度显著,低纬度差一些;温度场订正效果低纬度要显著一些.Errors in numeric weather predicting always exist and increase with the predicting lengths.Through a theoretic analysis,the actual changes in atmosphere can be divided into three parts：model change,similarity case change and random change.The contribution ratio can be decided through statistical method of regression. According to the viewpoint mentioned above,a scheme for correcting T213 L31 NPP was put forward by using the historical meteorological data.A trial correction for 2009-2010 height field and temperature field of the T213 L31 NPP in the range of east Asia was evaluated on the standard pressure level by using the 24 h variation correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error（RMSE）.The result are as follows：Evaluated by the 24 h variation correlation coefficient,the correcting effect of the height field and temperature field were positive during all forecast lengths,especially during 96～192 h.Evaluated by RMSE,the correcting effect of height field and temperature field were also positive and obvious.The correction effect was different in different regions.For the height field,the correction effect was obvious at a high latitude and not so obvious at a low latitude.For the temperature field the correction effect was obvious at a low latitude.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 历史资料 相似订正 

分 类 号：P456.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]