鱼和熊掌能否兼得？：我国财政政策效果研究  

A Win-Win Situation?:A Study on Effects of China's Fiscal Policy

作　　者：潘敏[1,2] 张依茹[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院金融系 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第4期51-59,共9页Statistical Research

基　　金：2010年教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“逆周期宏观调控政策与中国经济平衡增长研究”(课题批准号:10JJD790003)阶段性成果;武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学)阶段性成果;“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”资助

摘　　要：财政政策的目标是在稳定经济增长的同时,促进国民收入分配的均等化,以实现社会资源的公平和有效配置。本文运用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型对1994年1季度至2010年3季度我国财政支出的经济增长和收入分配效应进行了检验。结果表明,我国财政政策对经济增长和收入分配差距的影响机制是时变的,并且财政政策的经济增长和收入分配效应的区制转换与不同财政政策下的政府支出结构的变化紧密相关。当财政支出中社会性支出的增速高于经济性支出的增速时,财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也在一定程度上抑制了居民收入分配差距的扩大,而这种情况大多发生在紧缩性或稳健性财政政策时期。反之则财政政策在促进经济增长的同时导致了居民收入分配差距的扩大。The fiscal policy not only aims to maintain a stable economic growth,but also aims to promote the equalized distribution of national income so as to realize the equal and effective allocation of social resources.This paper,by making use of Markov-Switching Vector Auto Regression,examines the effects of China＇s fiscal expenditure policy on economic growth and income distribution from 1st Quarter,1994 to 3rd Quarter,2010.The results show that the effects of fiscal expenditure on economic growth and income distribution are time-variant,moreover,the regime-switching of fiscal expenditures＇ effects is closely related to its structure.When the social expenditure takes on a faster growth than the economic expenditure,the fiscal policy could achieve the goals of boosting economic growth and easing the gap of income inequality,in most cases this happens in fiscal contraction or periods of sound fiscal policy.Instead,when the economic expenditure grows faster than social expenditure,the fiscal policy could only achieve the goal of promoting the economy at the expense of deteriorating the income inequality,this happens more frequently in periods of fiscal expansion.

关 键 词：财政政策 经济增长 收入分配 时变效应 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]