台风路径集合预报试验  

The study on ensemble prediction of typhoon track

作　　者：王秋良[1] 刘家峻 张立凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]解放军61741部队

出　　处：《气象科学》2012年第2期137-144,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40975031)

摘　　要：基于T63L9模式,利用BGM法进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对集合预报中的一个关键技术—繁殖长度进行了研究。结果表明:相对于控制预报,利用增长模繁殖法制作的集合预报对台风路径预报的技巧水平有了很大提高。集合预报中采用不同的繁殖长度对台风路径预报效果有一定影响。繁殖长度取2 d和3 d集合预报效果相对于控制预报都有很大提高。繁殖长度取为2 d时,集合离散度较小,取为3 d时较合理,取为4 d时,离散度较大。对台风路径的预报采用集合选择平均后,繁殖2 d和繁殖3 d的集合预报系统的预报效果都优于控制预报。从综合集合预报效果分析,繁殖长度取为3 d更合适。当集合预报中繁殖长度取为3 d时,在预报的前3天,台风路径集合预报误差基本维持在100 km,第4天误差也只接近300 km。相对于控制预报,集合预报的改进率在预报的2～4 d基本超过了60%,甚至可达到70%。By using T63L9 model and breeding mode growth method（BGM）,the ensemble prediction of typhoon track has been carried out,and the research of the breeding length which is the key technology of BGM has been done.The result shows that the ensemble prediction by using BGM is able to improve the skill of typhoon track prediction in contrast with the control prediction.The different breeding length in ensemble prediction has some influence on the prediction effect of typhoon track.When the breeding length is selected as 2 or 3 d,the effect of ensemble prediction is better than control forecast.When the breeding length is 3 d,the measure of ensemble spread is reasonable.But when the breeding length is selected as 4 d,the measure of ensemble spread is too small.In a word,the prediction effect of breeding for 2 d or 3 d is better than control forcast.The ensemble prediction breeding for 3 d is more reasonable.When the breeding length is selected as 3 d,the typhoon track error of ensemble prediction is about 100 km in the first 3 d,which is only close to 300km in the fourth day.Compared with the control forecast,the correction of ensemble prediction can reach over 60%,and even 70% in the 2-4 d.

关 键 词：台风路径 集合预报 BGM 繁殖长度 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]