沪宁高速公路高温预警指标及预报模型的研究  

Study on forewarning indexes and forecasting models of the high temperature weathers on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway

作　　者：袁成松[1,2] 严明良[1,2] 王秋云[2] 包云轩[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008 [2]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2012年第2期210-218,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2010750);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(重点)项目(CMAGJ2011Z17);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906037);江苏高校优势学科建设工程

摘　　要：利用沪宁高速公路实时监测数据,筛选出30个典型高温天气过程,应用WRF模式对其进行了数值模拟。在对输出结果作统计分析后,提取了沪宁高速公路高温天气的几个数值预警指标,建立了梅村、河阳两站的高温预报模型。研究表明:(1)利用WRF模式对沪宁高速公路沿线的高温天气过程进行模拟是可行的;(2)提取的沪宁高速公路高温数值预警指标有:前一日14时的地表温度Ts≥40℃、地面潜热通量Fl≥350 W.m-2、近地面相对湿度Hr≤60%、当日08时的地面感热通量Fs为负值且绝对值≥70 W.m-2、地面水平风速Vs≤3 m.s-1,当各项指标同时满足时,可预报当日会出现35℃以上的高温;(3)采用多元线性回归方法分别建立了梅村和河阳站的高温天气预报模型,经检验所建模型预报准确率较高。In this paper,30 typical high temperature weather events were filtered with the real-time data monitored by the automatic meteorological monitoring system on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway and these events were simulated by the WRF model.The output from the model was used to draw the graphics uniformly,and the forewarning indexes of the high temperature occurrence on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were extracted after the statistical analysis.Based on this,the forecast models of the high temperature at Meicun Station and Heyang Station on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were established.The results show that：（1） The selective simulations on the high temperature weather events along the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway by using WRF model were feasible.（2） The numerical forewarning indexes of the high temperature on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were extracted as follows：in the previous day the surface temperature at 14：00 was above 40℃,the latent heat flux on the ground at 14：00 was above 350 W·m-2,the air relative humidity near the ground at 14：00 was below 60%,the sensible heat flux at the surface at 08：00 was negative and its absolute value was above 70 W·m-2,and the horizontal wind speed on ground at 08：00 on the predicted day was below 3 m·s-1.When all the indexes meet the requirements,the high temperature weather above 35 ℃ on the predicted day could be forecasted.（3） The forecasting models of the high temperature weathers at Meicun Station and Heyang Station were established by a multiple linear regression method and it was indicated that the forecast accuracy of the forecasting models was satisfactory.

关 键 词：高温 预报模型 WRF模式 数值预警指标 

分 类 号：P457.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]