1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震静态库仑应力变化及断裂危险性初步研究  

The coulomb stress change associated with the Taiwan Strait M_S7.3 earthquake on Sep.16,1994 and the risk prediction of its surrounding faults

作　　者：王韶稳[1,2] 詹文欢[1] 张帆[1,2] 朱俊江[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南海海洋研究所边缘海地质重点实验室,广州市新港西路164号510301 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京市玉泉路19号甲100049

出　　处：《中国地震》2011年第4期419-430,共12页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U0933006);国家自然科学基金(41006030;41176054)共同资助;广东省"908"专项课题(GD908-JC-03;GD908-JC-10)

摘　　要：利用1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震震源机制解及滑动分布模型的资料,计算了由台湾海峡7.3级地震造成的静态库仑应力变化。对余震的分布进行了研究与分析,从震后余震的分布与应力场的情况及历史上这一地区的震源地分布的角度对库仑应力的变化进行了分析。结果显示,基于滑动分布模型正演的静态库仑应力变化在距震中相对较远的区域与余震分布的一致性较好,约90%的余震发生在库仑应力增加的区域;在震中附近计算出的库仑应力变化比较复杂,与余震的分布序列并不完全一致。在距震中较远的区域,库仑应力变化能比较好的反映余震的分布,而在震中附近库仑应力变化与余震分布的对应关系则比较复杂。以闽粤滨海断裂带为接收断层计算了其上的库仑应力变化,结果显示其西南段上的应力增加,促使其活动性增强,认为在闽粤滨海断裂带与NW走向的上杭-东山断裂交汇的南澎岛-东山岛海域发生地震的潜在危险性较大。Using the focal mechanism and slip distribution model of the Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake on Sep.16,1994,we calculated the static coulomb stress change stemming from the earthquake.Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field as well as the location of historical earthquake,we researched the coulomb stress change of Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake.The result shows that：static coulomb stress change forward modeling based on slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the area that is far away from the epicenter.Ninety percent aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas.The coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter.It follows that coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock occurrence far away from epicenter,while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near epicenter.Through the calculation,we find that the coulomb stress change in southwest part of Min-Yue（Fujian-Guangdong） coastal fault zone is increased,and this enhances the seismic activity.As it is the intersection area of Min-Yue coastal fault with Shanghang-Dongshan fault,we considered the Nanpeng Island-Dongshan Island surroundings have a high potential seismic risk.

关 键 词：库仑应力变化 台湾海峡7.3级地震 震源机制解 断裂危险性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]