我国超额货币供给与通货膨胀的实证研究——基于“货币滞存”视角的VAR模型分析  

Empirical Research Based on China's Excessive Currency Supply and Inflation

作　　者：张晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学,北京100070

出　　处：《上海市经济管理干部学院学报》2012年第3期40-47,共8页Journal of Shanghai Economic Management College

基　　金：首都经济贸易大学2010年硕士研究生科技创新项目"我国区域金融发展的综合评价与空间演化分析";(编号:CUEB2010019)

摘　　要：选取1991～2010年间的年度数据为样本,采用"货币滞存法"测算我国的超额货币。运用ADF检验、协整检测、格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法实证分析了超额货币对通货膨胀的影响。结果表明:中国存在超额货币现象,超额货币对通货膨胀有正向冲击,影响持续时间一般较长。在此基础上,提出冲销超额货币,平衡货币供求,管理好通货膨胀预期等政策建议。Selects the degree by using a few annual data methods of between 1991 ~2010 as the sample, evaluates China＇s excessive ＂monetary overhang＂. Applying ADF test, Cointegration Test, Causality Test, VAR model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition, to analyze the currency Granger impact of currency inflation. The result shows that the phenomenon of excessive currency does exist in China, it has pos- itive influence on inflation, which lasts a long time generally. On that basis, the paper gives some suggestions such as offsetting the excessive currency, make the balance between supplying and demanding of currency, managing inflation expectations.

关 键 词：货币滞存 超额货币 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]