短时临近预报系统在广东一次强对流天气过程中的检验分析  

Performance Verification for Two Nowcast Systems in a Convective Weather Event in Guangdong

作　　者：陈元昭 兰红平 陈训来[1] 胡娟 彭勇刚 

机构地区：[1]深圳市国家气候观象台,广东深圳518040 [2]深圳市气象局,广东深圳518040

出　　处：《广东气象》2012年第2期5-9,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(编号:2009014);华南区域气象中心气象科技攻关项目(编号:GRMC2010B01)联合资助

摘　　要：利用综合临近预报系统"雨燕"SWIFT和雷暴自动识别和追踪系统TRACER两个短时临近系统在广东一次强降水过程的实际应用情况进行检验,分析了雷达回波强度、范围、移动方向和QPF预报及弓形回波的预报效果。就TRACER和SWIFT两个短时临近预报系统对这次过程的回波和降水预报进行了逐时对比检验,研究发现在大部分时间内TRACER预报强度偏弱、范围偏小;SWIFT强度偏强、范围偏大。降水预报TRACER略偏小,而SWIFT明显偏大。通过QQ图检验,降水较小时,TRACER实用性强于SWIFT;降水较大时,SWIFT强于TRACER。Verifications for two nowcast systems of SWIFT and TRACER were conducted during a convective weather event in Guangdong. The hourly forecast performance for radar reflectivity, coverage, moving direction of echo, the quantitative pre- cipitation forecast （QPF） and the bow echo are studied. The results show that in the most of the time TRACER （SWIFT） has weaker （stronger） forecast in intensity and （smaller） larger forecast in coverage. As for QPF, TRACER is slightly lower than observation and SWIFT is obviously higher than observation. A conclusion could be drawn from Q - Q plot that during small precipitation period, TRACER is more appliable but during heavy precipitation period, SWIFT would be a better choice.

关 键 词：天气预报 短时临近预报系统 强对流天气 广东 

分 类 号：P44[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]