基于BBS的热点话题发现与态势预测技术的研究  

Research on the Technology of Hot Topics Foundation and Trend Forecast in BBS

作　　者：卢珺珈[1] 张宏莉[1] 张玥[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学计算机科学与技术学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《智能计算机与应用》2012年第2期1-5,共5页Intelligent Computer and Applications

基　　金：国家973计划项目(G2011CB302605);国家863计划项目(2010AA012504)

摘　　要：网络论坛BBS是中国网民一个重要的信息传播渠道,而其中的热点话题自然就成为舆情调控和效果评估的首要目标。提出一个快速有效的用于挖掘网络论坛中热点话题并分析预测其发展态势的方法,利用统计的方法为同一版面下帖子的热度打分并排序,并使用相关的数学模型对热度较高的帖子的发展态势进行分析与预测。通过实验验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,为进一步研究复杂网络中热点话题的演化奠定了基础。BBS is an important channel of information dissemination among the Chinese Internet users.So the hot topics will naturally become the primary goal of public opinion regulation and effects assessment.This paper presents a fast and effective method for mining a hot topic and analyzing,forecasting its development trend in online forums.By making use of statistical methods for ranking the heat rate of posts in the same topic,the paper uses the mathematical model to analyze and forecast the development trend of the post owning high heatrate.Then feasibility and effectiveness of the model is verified by experiments so that this research may lay the foundation for the further study of the evolution of the hot topics in complex networks.

关 键 词：BBS 热点话题 舆情调控 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]