赤潮高发期间厦门海域叶绿素值预报方程建立及应用于灾害性赤潮预报模式的研究  

Establishment of a chlorophyll forecast equation and its application in red tide forecasting in Xiamen offshore area

作　　者：吴玉芳 

机构地区：[1]厦门市海洋与渔业环境监测站,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《海洋预报》2012年第2期39-44,共6页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC03B01)

摘　　要：利用厦门海域2005—2008年海洋水质自动连续监测仪器的多年全天24 h连续监测所获取的海水各项因子的有关数据,对其进行24 h滑动平均处理后,再进一步筛选整理形成统计所需样本,采用逐步回归统计方法建立28 h预报方程,试图能对和赤潮产生有紧密关系的叶绿素含量变化做出短期预报,并尝试将预报结果应用于灾害性赤潮预报业务。Marine water quality automatic monitor,placed in Xiamen offshore waters,was continually collect-ing data for each hour during 2005 to 2008.In this study,a 24-hour sliding average is applied to the data,and samples are selected to establish a 28-hours forecasting equation using stepwise regression analysis.A short-term prediction of chlorophyll concentration,which has close relationship with the occurrence of red tide,is made based on the established forecasting equation.Furthermore,we also attempt to apply the forecasting results to the operational red-tide forecast.

关 键 词：叶绿素含量 24h滑动平均 样本 预报 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]