一种流行病学研究的开关模型  

Novel Switch Epidemiologic Model for Infectious Diseases

作　　者：王霄翔[1] 张亚琴[2] 冀德君[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省东台市畜牧兽医站,江苏东台224200 [2]扬州大学动物科学与技术学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《家畜生态学报》2012年第2期94-97,共4页Journal of Domestic Animal Ecology

基　　金：国家"863"项目(2008AA10Z144);扬州大学高层次人才项目

摘　　要：流行病学的数学模型应用于描述动物传染病的流行态势,在早期具有一定的准确性,而在当前普遍添加抗生素和免疫的形势下,传染病的流行态势呈现不规则的情形,非典型性传染病时有发生,为诊断和及早采取应对措施增添了不少麻烦,影响了防治的效果。依据免疫力系统可能存在开关的特性,设计了一种开关型数学模型来预测传染病的流行态势。计算结果显示不同条件下特定病原具有一定的传播规律,感染率可能存在限度,具有相同传播规律的群体的传播速度被限制在一定幅度以内。研究将为疫病传播的数学模型的研究提供一个新的视角,为流行病学研究提供更多数学工具。Mathematical models are usually applied in infectious diseases to describe the epidemic trend with some accuracy in early classic cases,while current infectious diseases do not show a regular trend under the condition of dietary antibiotics and immunization,causing great problems in diagnosis and early control.Based on the possibility of Switch theory in immune system,a switch epidemiologic model for infectious diseases was designed and the corresponding theoretical computation was conducted.The computation results showed that different condition had certain spreading trend with a possible limit for incidence rate,and populations with the same spreading trend would have a limited spreading rate.The research would give a novel angle and new tool for epidemiologic model research.

关 键 词：流行病学 数学模型 开关模型 免疫力 非典型性传染病 

分 类 号：S811.6[农业科学—畜牧学]