近58年来宁夏可利用降水量多时间尺度变化特征分析  

Analysis of Multi-time Scale Variability of Available Precipitation for 58 Years in Ningxia

作　　者：徐利岗[1,2] 汤英 杜历 鲍子云 

机构地区：[1]宁夏水利科学研究所,银川750021 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2012年第2期85-90,共6页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金项目(NZ10215);宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金项目(NZ10214);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD29B07)

摘　　要：依据宁夏1951—2008年月降水及气温资料,计算了可利用降水序列。运用地统计方法、小波分析法及气候趋势系数等方法分析了宁夏近58年来可利用降水量的空间分布及多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明,宁夏多年平均可利用降水量68.5mm,自北向南依次增大;7—9月占全年的69.14%～77.48%;夏季可利用降水量占年值57.81%～67.44%,秋季次之(19.87%～27.27%),冬季最小;存在3年、6年与10年振荡周期;未来,宁夏大部分地区陆面蒸发呈增加趋势,增幅0.516～6.796mm/10a,且自北向南依次增大;各地年、夏季及秋季可利用降水量均呈减少趋势,中部干旱带减幅最大(9.839～15.779mm/10a),北部引黄灌区以5.784～8.477mm/10a幅度减少,南部山区则以6.741～8.229mm/10a的幅度减少。Using geostatistical approach,morlet wavelet analysis and climatic trend coefficient method,the characteristics of multi-time scale variability of available precipitation and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series and temperature in Ningxia during 1951—2008.Results indicate that： In Ningxia,the average of available precipitation was 68.5 mm,and increased from north to south generally.The maximum value appears from July to September and the ratio is 69.14%~77.48% in annual.The ratios were different for seasonal available precipitation to annual,for example,the value is 57.81%~67.44%,19.87%~27.27% and 0.50%~1.24% in summer,autumn and winter respectively.The series of annual available precipitation have 3,6 and 10 years main cycles.In the future,the continental evapotranspiration will increase from north to south by 0.516~6.796 mm/10a in mostly areas of Ningxia.Moreover,the available precipitation have an induce tendency in annual,summer and autumn.The decrease ranges are 9.839~15.779 mm/10a,5.784~8.477 mm/10a and 6.741~8.229 mm/10a in the mid arid zone,the Yellow river irrigation area and south mountainous areas respectively.

关 键 词：可利用降水量 空间分布 多时间尺度 时间演变 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]