新疆阿勒泰地区降水变化特征分析  

Analysis on Precipitation in Altay Prefecture,Xinjiang

作　　者：庄晓翠[1] 杨森[1] 赵正波[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2012年第3期487-494,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：新疆气象局项目"阿勒泰地区气候变化与干旱研究"(201014);公益性行业(气象)科研专项"新疆北部致灾暴雪成因分析和预报技术研究(GYHY201106007)

摘　　要：采用阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站1961-2009年逐月和2010年1～3月降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Cubic函数、Mann-Kendall突变检测、R/S分析、Morlet小波变换法,对该地区降水量进行分析。结果表明:①该地区年和冬季降水量呈显著的增多趋势,其他季节没有显著的变化;区域中存在较大的差异;降水量的线性趋势与Mann-Kendall趋势变化基本一致。②Cubic函数曲线拟合表明,年和春冬季降水量呈单调上升趋势,由少到多转型的时间在20世纪60年代初中期;夏季降水量呈现多、少、多、少的变化,目前处于低值点;秋季变化不明显;各站点中时空分布存在较大的差异。③年降水量在1983年前后、夏季在1987年前后发生了由少到多的显著突变,春秋季无显著突变,冬季无突变点;各区域中突变的时间不一致。④年及各季降水量存在显著的年代际和年际尺度的周期变化。⑤降水量的变化具有反持续性。This paper focused on precipitation in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang based on the monthly precipitation data during the period from 1961 to 2009 and from January to March 2010, and the Mann-Kendall trend test, cubic function, Mann-Kendall sharp change check, R/S analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation analysis were used in the study. The results are as follows： （1） Annual and winter precipitation was significantly increased, and the change of precipitation in other seasons was not obvious ; precipitation was quite different from different regions ; the linear trend of precipitation was consistent with the Mann-Kendall trend change; （2） The fitting results of cubic function revealed that the annual, spring and winter precipitation was monotonously increased, and such change occurled from the 1960s; summer precipitation was increased at first, then decreased, increased and decreased again; the variation of autumn precipitation was not significant, and the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation was quite different from different regions; （3） Annual and summer precipitation was sharply increased around 1983 and 1987 respectively, the sharp change of spring and autumn precipitation was not significant, and there was no sharp change of winter precipitation ; the sharp change time of precipitation was inconsistent ; （4） There was a significant periodic change of annual and seasonal precipitation at inter-decadal and inter-annual scales; （5） There was an anticontinuance of precipitation.

关 键 词：降水量 Mann-Kendall趋势检验 Cubic函数 Mann-Kendall突变检测 R/S分析法 Morlet小波变换 时空分布 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]