气候变化和人类活动对黑河水资源的影响  

Quantities Research of Climate Change and Human Activities Affecting Water Resources

作　　者：潘燕辉[1] 张辉[1] 马金珠[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室/西部环境与气候变化研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第5期55-56,60,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2009CB421306);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(lzujbky-2011-138)

摘　　要：随着全球变暖和人类活动强度的增强,水资源正经历着巨大的改变,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响就显的尤为重要。选择西部干旱区内陆河黑河的中游为研究区,分别运用主观、客观赋权法和组合赋权法分析气候变化和人类活动中各因素对黑河水资源影响的权重。组合权重评价结果表明:人类活动是研究区水资源变化的主要原因,其累计权重达66.63%,大于气候变化影响权重33.37%;人类活动因素中人口占主导作用,权重为17.67%;气候变化因素中年降水量是主要因素,权重为24.83%。As the global warming and the intensity of human activity increase,water resources have experience dramatic change.Heihe River in Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province located in the arid inland of Northwest in China,the contradictions of the water resources in this area have became more and more serious with the development of social-economics.Based on the analysis of weight coefficient method,the paper used combination weighting method to calculate the weight coefficient of the climate change and the human activities.The results show that the human activities are the main reason result to the change of water resources in the research area,its weight coefficient reaches to 66.63% which is higher than the factors of climate change which the cumulative weight coefficient is 33.37%.Population is the dominate reason in human activity,and its weight coefficient reaches to 17.67%.Precipitation is the dominate reason in climate change and its weight coefficient reaches to 24.83%.

关 键 词：水资源 气候变化 人类活动 黑河流域 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]