地震荷载下露天坑边坡模糊随机可靠度分析  

Fuzzy Random Reliability of Open-pit Mine Slope under Seismic Load

作　　者：柳皎[1,2] 李夕兵[1,2] 董陇军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中南大学深部金属矿产开发与灾害控制湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第3期35-41,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：湖南省自然科学创新研究群体基金资助(09AJJ7003);国家重点研究基础发展规划("973")项目(2010CB732004)

摘　　要：为探讨地震荷载下露天坑边坡的稳定性,结合可靠度分析方法及模糊数学理论对边坡工程的可靠度进行分析。以某露天坑边坡工程为例,利用拟静力法分析地震荷载下影响边坡工程可靠度的各个作用力,进而应用可靠度、模糊数学等理论对边坡工程进行可靠度分析,得到该边坡工程的随机失效概率为0.015 9,模糊失效概率为0.100 1。同时,对黏聚力c和内摩擦因数f的均值和方差进行敏感度分析,可知其取值的变化将对失效概率产生线性影响,其中模糊失效概率的敏感度较低,而随机失效概率的敏感度则相对较高。结果表明,模糊随机可靠度分析结果虽偏于保守,但它考虑不确定性因素的影响,更适用于大型工程的施工。For the purpose of probing into stability of open-pit mine slope under seismic load,the reliability was analyzed by using reliability method and fuzzy mathematic theory.The forces acting on the slope of a certain open-pit mine under seismic load were investigated by pseudo-static method.Then,the reliability of the slope engineering was analyzed with reliability and fuzzy mathematic theory.The results show that the failure probability and fuzzy failure probability were 0.015 9 and 0.100 1,respectively.Meanwhile,the sensitivities of mean and variance for cohesion and internal friction coefficient were discussed.The results show that there is an obvious liner correlation between them.The sensitivity of fuzzy failure probability was lower than that of failure probability.The reason why the failure probability obtained by fuzzy random reliability was more less than that by random reliability is that it considered the uncertain factors influence.

关 键 词：边坡工程 可靠度 模糊数学 地震荷载 敏感度分析 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]