城市埋地燃气管道危险性SPA-Markov链评价预测模型  

SPA-Markov Chain Model for Evaluating and Forecasting Urban Buried Gas Pipeline Risk

作　　者：亢永[1] 许开立[1] 刘家喜[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第3期147-152,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为对城市埋地燃气管道系统危险性进行动态评价及预测,为管理者提供更客观的、可靠的管理依据,将集对分析(SPA)理论和马尔科夫链相结合用于城市埋地燃气系统的动态评价中。针对城市埋地燃气管道系统存在不确定性和动态变化的特点,提出集状态评价和预测分析于一体的城市埋地燃气系统动态危险性评价预测方法。该方法利用SPA的多元联系数对系统的危险等级进行划分,运用马尔科夫链的遍历性,并将结果与集对势相结合,预测城市埋地燃气管道系统最终的危险水平。For the sake of evaluating dynamically and forecasting the risk of an urban buried gas pipeline system,and providing more subjective and safe management grounds for manager,the SPA and Markov chain were got together,and used for evaluating dynamically urban buried gas pipeline system.Seeing that the system had a lot of uncertainties and a dynamic state characteristic,a new dynamic method for evaluating and forecasting the risk of the system was adopted,that was a combination of state evaluation and forecast analysis.With this method,the danger grade of the system was determined according to the contact number,and the final risk level of the system was forecasted by using the ergodic property of the Markov chain and a combination of set pair state potential with the result.

关 键 词：城市埋地燃气管道系统 静态评价 动态评价与预测 集对分析(SPA) 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]