非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究  

Research on Unconventional Event Emergency Decision-making Methodologies

作　　者：李明磊[1,2] 王红卫[1,2] 祁超[1,2] 刘丹[1,2] 王剑[1,2] 王喆[1,2] 周超[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学系统工程研究所,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学图像信息处理与智能控制教育部重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第3期158-163,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(90924301);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成平台项目(91024032);科技部"十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题专题(2008BAB29B07-2);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2011TS139)

摘　　要：为深入研究非常规突发事件应急决策方法,提高对非常规突发事件的应对能力,调查研究基于应急预案、范例推理和智能规划等3种非常规突发事件的应急决策方法,对比分析这3种方法的特点。研究发现:这3种方法都可以在一定程度上为非常规突发事件提供辅助决策,但是基于智能规划的应急决策方法更适于非常规突发事件复杂的决策环境,有较大发展潜力。然后针对该方法,提出一些需要深入研究的开放性课题。For researching the methodologies for emergency decision-making deeply,and improving the ability of response to unconventional events,three main methodologies for emergency decision-making were reviewed,which were emergency preplan-based,case-based reasoning and intelligent planning-based respectively.By way of comparing the three methodologies,the advantages and disadvantages were derived.The results show that although all the three methodologies can provide subsidiary decisions for the unconventional events partly,the intelligent planning-based is most preferable for emergency decision-making of unconventional events and has a large potential to develop.Then,several potential open issues about the method were pointed out for the further research.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 应急决策方法 应急预案 范例推理 智能规划 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]