高原地震协同应急方法研究——以玉树地震为例  

Modeling Research on Synergetic Emergency Response to Plateau Earthquake——Case Study into Yushu Earthquake

作　　者：邓芳[1] 刘吉夫[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第3期170-176,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助(91024024);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2009SD-20)

摘　　要：为提高各高原地震应对部门间的协同联动能力,基于组织冲突角度的协同思想对高原地震应急方法进行研究。针对我国高原地震特点,结合高原地震相关应急预案中各主体的职责体系,归纳高原地震应急过程中5种基本冲突类型,建立冲突矩阵。并基于"解决冲突,有序协同"的理念,提出协同应急响应方法,建立协同效率评价模型。就玉树地震救援过程,拟合出高原地震中4个主要部门(救援队伍、医疗部门、交通部门以及协会组织)的协同救援效率,并作出救援效果曲线。结果表明:采用根据冲突模型构建的协同应急方法不仅能够极大地提高救援效率,还能够发现影响救援效率的潜在冲突。For improving the collaborative capacity among the multi-agents in response to plateau earth- quakes, the method in response to a plateau earthquake was studied based on the synergy concept concern- ing the organizational conflicts. After discussing the features of plateau earthquake and the multi-agent responsibility system provided in the emergency plan , the five basic types of conflicts in the earthquake emergency process are summarized, and a conflict matrix was established. On the basis of the conception of ＂solve conflicts, be cooperation＂, synergetic emergency response methods were proposed, and a synergy efficiency evaluation mode was built. Taking Yushu earthquake as an example, the rescue efficiencies of the four main departments （the rescue teams, medicine services, transportation services and association organization ） were fitted.

关 键 词：玉树 高原地震 协同效率评价 应急响应 部门冲突 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] D632.5[政治法律—政治学]