男子百米成绩预测的数学模型  

Mathematical Models to Predict Performance on Male 100 m

作　　者：金庆红[1] 黄贝君[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工程大学体育学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]广州体育学院研究生部,广州510500

出　　处：《红河学院学报》2012年第2期95-97,共3页Journal of Honghe University

摘　　要：先前有许多对田径比赛成绩进行预测的研究,使用的数学模型在不断优化.总体而言,非线性模型对于未来成绩的预测更为精确.本研究对2011年男子100 m成绩的预测结果显示,Cubic函数拟合效果最好(R2=0.787,P<0.01),误差仅为0.29%.因此,采用Cubic函数模型(R2=0.826,P<0.01)对2012年男子百米成绩进行预测.对比赛成绩进行预测的唯一意义在于检验预测的精确度.There were many previous researches to predict athletic performance,and the mathematical models used were in continuous optimization.Overall,non-linear model for future predictions was more accurately.The results of predicted performance of men's 100 m in 2011 indicated that Cubic functions fitted best(R2=0.787,P<0.01),and the error was only 0.29%.Therefore,used Cubic function model(R2=0.826,P<0.01)to predict performance on men's 100 m in 2012.The only purpose of performance prediction was to test the accuracy of performance prediction.

关 键 词：男子百米 成绩预测 数学模型 

分 类 号：G822.1[文化科学—体育训练]