济宁市系统动力学需水预测模型研究  

An Approach to the Water Demand Forecasting of Jining City from the Perspective of System Dynamics

作　　者：张银平[1] 谭海鸥[2] 陈奇[3] 任晨曦[1] 李玲[1] 林洪孝[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [2]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018 [3]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2012年第5期21-24,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部水资源费专项[DRCWX(2011)]

摘　　要：系统动力学以反馈控制理论为基础,处理高阶次、非线性、多重反馈、复杂时变的系统问题,广泛应用于水资源、城市水环境规划中。科学合理的需水预测是规划社会经济建设规模和发展速度的重要依据。针对济宁市水资源和社会经济现状与发展要求,以实现水资源供需平衡为目标,建立需水量预测系统动力学模型,通过变量调控、方案设计及节水效果评估,为节水管理提供决策信息。研究表明,建立的模型是有效的,可以全面客观地使济宁市社会经济发展获得良好的可持续性。Based on the theory of feedback control, system dynamics mainly deals with higher-order, nonlinear, multiple feedback, time-varying complex system problems. It is widely used in water resources and urban water environmental planning. Scientific and rational water demand forecasting is an important basis for planning socio-economie development scale and speed. Based on the status and development requirements for water resources and social economy, and aims at keeping a balance between water supply and de- mand, this paper establishes a system dynamics model for water demand forecast. Through variable control, program design and as- sessment of water-saving, provides us with some decision-making information for water management. Studies show that, the model established is valid and can get good sustainability fully and objectively in social and economic development of Jining City.

关 键 词：系统动力学模型 需水预测 节水 方案 决策 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]