中国应急煤炭储备规模极值分析  

Extreme-Value Analysis of China's Emergency Coal Reserve Scale

作　　者：牟敦果[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学,厦门361005

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2012年第3期71-78,共8页China Economic Studies

基　　金：厦门大学"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"资助;项目名称:<我国区域能源安全与战略煤炭储备研究>;项目编号:ZK1009

摘　　要：应急煤炭储备是中国特有的问题,但国内对其规模的定量研究非常少。本文从中国煤炭运输格局、发电用煤需求波动角度研究了建立国家级和省级应急煤炭储备省份的选择,运用极值分析方法研究了煤炭输入省份发电耗煤变动的极值冲击情况,确定了应对不同概率的发电用煤需求冲击的煤炭储备规模,证明当前应急煤炭储备500万吨规模的目标太低。文章最后提出保障我国煤炭供应安全的政策建议:建立省级和国家级应急煤炭储备;建立煤炭产能储备和运力储备;继续扩大应急煤炭储备规模。Emergency coal reserve is a problem appearing only in China, yet there are few quantitative studies about its scale. This paper analyzes the location choice for national and provincial reserves from coal transportation situation and coal de- mand fluctuation aspects. This paper uses generalized extreme-Value approach to study coal demand shocks, calculating the coal reserve scales against different coal demand shocks, proving that the scale of 5 million ton is too low to deal with even per year shock. At last, this paper puts forward some suggestions to guaranty China＇s coal supply security：establishing national and provincial levels of emergency coal reserve ; keep coal production and transportation capacity surpluses ; continues to enhance e- mergency coal reserve scale.

关 键 词：应急储备 需求冲击 极值分析 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]