热带气旋登陆概率的Logistic模拟  

Landfalling Probability Fitting of Tropical Cyclone Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：魏章进[1] 唐丹玲[2] 隋广军[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学信息学院,广东广州510420 [2]中国科学院南海海洋研究所,热带海洋环境国家重点实验室,生态环境遥感研究中心,广东广州510301

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2012年第3期389-397,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：本研究采用1949--2008年近60年的热带气旋资料,对热带气旋源地分布与登陆概率进行了描述统计以及相关分析;并在此基础上建立Logistic模型,模拟热带气旋的登陆概率。结果显示:(1)西北太平洋热带气旋源地分布和登陆气旋的源地分布存在显著差异。0°-10°N纬度带登陆频数与生成频数比偏低,纬度带10°-15°N则两者具有一致性,而15°N以北登陆频数比偏高。经度的分布上135°E以西偏高,135°E以东偏低。(2)热带气旋登陆概率与源地存在显著相关关系。以西北太平洋热带气旋源地做5°×5°的经纬度分类,源地愈偏东登陆概率愈小,而TC源地纬度变化对其登陆概率的影响不如经度变化显著,但是随纬度偏北略为增加。(3)Logistic模型对影响和登陆我国的热带气旋拟合表明,经度带由西向东4个生成TC频数较多的典型海区,即南海中北部海面、菲律宾群岛以东和琉球群岛附近海面、马里亚纳群岛附近海面、马绍尔群岛附近海面的登陆概率逐渐减低。本文首次将非参数检验、Logistic概率回归模型等统计方法应用于热带气旋气候特征研究,提高了对西北太平洋热带气旋源地与其登陆关联性的统计规律性认识。This paper conducted descriptive statistics and correlation analysis between distribution ot source region and landing probability of tropical cyclone （TC） in the western North Pacific using TC data of 60 years （1949-2008）. A Logistic model was formed to show TC landing probability. The results shows： （1） The spatial distribution pattern is different between all TC and landing TC. Landfall frequency is less than genesis frequency in latitude 0^-10~N and is larger to the north of 15aN, while both have consistency in latitude 10^-15~N- In respect to longitude, landfall frequency is larger than genesis frequency to the west of 135~E and is less to east of 135~E. （2） In 50 x 50 area, TC landing frequency decreases from west to east. Landing frequency is affected less by latitude than by longitude. （3） Logistic model fitting implies that landing probabilities are gradually decreasing in the four main source regions, South China Sea area, the Philippines, Mariana Islands ocean surface, Marshall Islands ocean surface. This paper adoptednon-parametric test, logistic model to investigate TC climatic features, thus deepened the understanding on correlation between TC genesis location and landfall.

关 键 词：热带气旋 登陆概率 等级相关 总体分布检验 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]