太湖流域暴雨时空特征研究  

Study on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Rainstorm in Taihu Lake Basin

作　　者：于文金 阎永刚[1] 邹欣庆[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学省部共建气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]河海大学海岸灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210098 [3]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,南京210093

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2012年第5期766-777,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：“973”全球变化国家重大科技研究计划项目(2012CB955900);国家自然科学基金资助项目(10672052);淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM200802);河海灾害实验室开放基金(20090024)

摘　　要：暴雨灾害是一种主要的气象灾害,论文选择经济发达的太湖流域为研究区域,运用小波、线性趋势模拟、P-Ⅲ型概率密度函数、Mann-Kendall法等方法对太湖流域暴雨的时空变化特征及趋势进行分析研究。研究结果显示:①太湖流域55 a平均年暴雨日数有2.9个,年际变化幅度比较剧烈。1991—2000年是暴雨日数多发期,1959、1968和1978年暴雨日数较少,呈弱"倒U"型。暴雨频次平均值的空间分布呈现南多北少、西多东少的分布格局。暴雨量与暴雨日数的空间分布并不一致,出现北多南少、东多西少的分布。②研究显示P-Ⅲ曲线方法在区域降水极值的研究方面具有较好的效果,太湖流域年最大日降水量趋势呈现"U"型,与太湖流域年暴雨日数的演变特征呈现不一致的趋势。55 a来,太湖地区发生的最大暴雨在250 mm内,即200a一遇的暴雨洪水为该地区暴雨灾害的近代极值。③典型站点年暴雨降水量均有不同程度的增加趋势,以太湖中部以南的三个站点东山、杭州、慈溪最为显著,各点均存在不同程度的突变,但突变时间存在差异。④太湖流域夏季暴雨呈现2 a、9 a、13 a、25 a等多尺度的周期变化,各波动周期稳定性和显著性不同。Rainstorm disaster is a major meteorological disaster, this paper, taking the economic developed Taihu Lake Basin as a study area, uses wavelets, simulation of linear trend, P-11l type probability density function, Mann-Kendall and other methods to study and analyze temporal and spatial variation and trend of storms in Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed ： 1 ） Taihu Lake Basin had an annual average rainfall days of 2. 9 in the past 55 years with also more intense annual varia- tion rate. The period 1991 - 2000 witnessed frequent occurrence days of heavy rain while the years of 1959, 1968 and 1978 had fewer days of heavy rain, presenting a weak ＂inverted U-shaped＂ pat- tern. The spatial distribution of storm frequency means was high in the south and west and low in the north and east. Taihu Lake has a total annual average rainfall between 202. 1 -238.3 mm, but the spatial distribution of rainstorm quantity and rain days is uneven, appearing more in the north and east, and less in the south and west. 2） The study showed that P-Ⅲ curve method of precipitation extremes in the region has a good effect, the maximum precipitation trend in the Taihu Lake region showed a ＂U-shaped＂ pattern, which is inconsistent with the evolution charac- teristics of the number of days with heavy rain in the region. In the last 55 years, the maximum rainfall occurred in Taihu Lake Basin is no more than 250 ram, namely, a 200-year occurred rain- storm flood disaster in the region is of modern extreme value. 3 ） The typical site of torrential rain has an increasing trend to varying degrees, to three sites south of the central lake, i.e. , Dongs- han, Hangzhou and Cixi are most significant, the point mutations exist to different degrees, but the abrupt time differs. 4）The wavelet spectrum results show that the aummer rainfall in Taihu Lake Basin presents multi-scale changes of 2 a, 9 a, 13 a and 25 a, but the stability and signifi- cance of the wave period differ.

关 键 词：太湖 暴雨 降水极值 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]