养老金正常调整机制与养老负担关系分析  

The Analysis of the Relationship between the Adjustment Mechanism and the Burden of Pension

作　　者：施岚[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《人口与经济》2012年第3期77-83,90,共8页Population & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"养老保险制度转制与现有制度可持续性研究"(11YJC790279)

摘　　要：我国自建立城镇职工社会养老保险制度之初就提出要对养老金进行正常调整,但在近20年的实际操作过程中,仍未建立起统一、稳定、科学的调整机制。本文首先分析了在人口老龄化的背景下,养老金调整机制与养老负担之间的定量关系,根据现收现付制度的运行机理和经济增长原理分别推导出两种不同养老金调整机制下维持养老负担不变的临界条件,以我国人口老龄化趋势预测为基础对临界条件进行实证检验后得出结论,即在保持养老负担不变的前提下,不同的养老金调整机制对于经济增长率和工资增长率具有不同要求。文章为我国养老金调整机制的完善提供一定的依据。The adjustment mechanism of pension offering has not been established effectively in the past years.This paper makes quantitative analysis on the relationship between the adjustment mechanism and pension offering under background of the aging population,and proposes the critical conditions of maintaining pension offering under these mechanisms,respectively.Then tests of these conditions are conducted on basis of the projection of demography in our country.Finally,according to the research,these mechanisms have different requirements on the economic growth rate and wage growth rate.This research could provide basis for the adjustment of pension.

关 键 词：调整机制 养老负担 人口老龄化预测 经济增长率 工资增长率 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]