人民币实际有效汇率变动的中国产业结构升级效应  

The Effect of China′s Industrial Structure Upgrading caused by RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes

作　　者：徐伟呈[1] 范爱军[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院 [2]山东大学国际贸易研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2012年第6期9-15,87,共7页World Economy Studies

基　　金：范爱军教授主持的教育部规划基金项目"国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究"的阶段性成果。项目批准号:10YJA790044;山东大学"985工程"三期创新基地建设项目资助

摘　　要：本文在劳动力市场动态均衡模型的基础上,通过构建厂商利润最大化模型,验证了汇率变动影响产业结构调整的传导机制;然后通过协整检验、误差修正模型检验和脉冲响应分析进一步对传导机制进行验证,并具体考察了1981～2010年度人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国产业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率变动能够通过价格水平、对外贸易(出口和进口)和FDI 3条路径影响中国的产业结构调整。其中,价格水平和进口是两条重要路径,FDI的影响作用并不显著。人民币实际有效汇率升值能够促进中国产业结构的优化升级。On the basis of dynamic equilibrium model of labor market,this paper verifies the transmission mechanism of exchange rate changes influencing industrial structure adjustment through building manufacturer′s maximum profit model.Then through cointegration test,error correction model test and impulse response analysis,this paper verifies the transmission mechanism further and examines the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate changes on China′s industrial structure adjustment during 1981~2010 specifically.The results show that RMB real effective exchange rate will influence China′s industrial structure adjustment through three paths including price level,foreign trade(export and import) and FDI.Among them,price level and import are two major paths,while the influence of FDI is not significant.The appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate can promote China′s industrial structure upgrading.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 产业结构调整 传导机制 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6F121.3