基于经济冲击对称性的东亚货币合作研究  

The Research of East Asian Monetary Cooperation Based on Symmetry of Economic Shocks

作　　者：安辉[1] 赵清[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《预测》2012年第3期1-7,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(10YJA790002);辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助项目(L10BJY011);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT11RW201)

摘　　要：每次金融危机爆发都会引起人们对区域货币合作的高度关注。亚洲金融危机催生了东亚货币合作的基石即以清迈倡议(CMI)为代表的区域救助机制,而此次危机后形成的标志性合作成果则是清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)。本文正是基于上述事实通过建立向量自回归模型比较东亚地区过去30年和近10年经济冲击对称性的差异,以考察东亚地区货币合作基础的新特征和变化趋势。结果表明,东亚地区小国间的经济冲击对称性一直很高,并继续呈上升趋势;而近年来,最为显著的变化是以中日为代表的大国间的经济冲击对称性的显著提高,因而为东亚更深层次的货币合作奠定基础。鉴于此,本文认为东亚区域货币合作应适时调整为以"亚洲共同繁荣"为目标,由过去的"危机推动型"合作转向以中日为代表的"大国推动型"合作。Regional monetary cooperation are always greatly concerned after every financial crisis. Asian financial crisis came to the birth of the Chiang mai initiative（ CMI）, which is a cornerstone of the East Asian monetary cooperation as the regional assistance relief mechanism. And Chiang mai initiative muhilateral mechanism （CMIM）was launched as a marking result of cooperation amid this crisis . Based on above facts, this paper compares the difference of East Asian symmetry of economic shocks to examine the new features and trends of monetary cooperation in East Asia. The results show that the symmetry of economic shocks among smaller economies of East Asia has been high and is still rising, and in recent years, the most remarkable change is that the symmetry of economic shocks among the great powers, represen- ted by China and Japan, increases evidently, thus paving the way for East Asian deeper monetary cooperation. In view of this, this paper argues that East Asia regional monetary cooperation should timely set the goal as ＂East Asian co-prosper- ity＂ and promote the cooperation to ＂great power impetus＂ by China and Japan from the past ＂crisis＇ s impetus＂.

关 键 词：最优货币区理论 东亚货币合作 冲击对称性 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]