经济周期对企业违约选择的影响研究  

The Study on Economic Cycle Affecting the Default Decision of Enterprises

作　　者：雷汉云[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《预测》2012年第3期65-70,共6页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部高等院校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20060533076);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(05JJ30133)

摘　　要：通过构建企业资产价值的融资决策局部均衡模型,提出经济周期影响企业违约风险选择的框架。当现金流依赖当前的经济状况时,有利于企业调整违约和融资政策以适应经济状况所处的经济周期阶段。本文的模型证实了企业债务水平及杠杆比率的逆周期性,同时阐述了经济周期对企业债务能力的影响。This paper develops a frame work for analyzing the impact of economic cycle on default decision-making by building partial equilibrium model of financial decision-making on the value of corporate assets. When cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the posi- tion of the economy in the business cycle phase. We show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate the impact of economic cycle on the debt capacity.

关 键 词：债务能力 违约风险 经济周期 

分 类 号：F069.9[经济管理—政治经济学]