电力市场环境下的典型产业月用电负荷预测分析  

Analysis of Monthly Load Forecasting for Typical Industries in Power Market Environment

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 刘洋[1] 王蕾[1] 陈玉胜 李彦吉 贾海清 刘长玺 尹兆文 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]内蒙古东部电力有限公司,呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《科技和产业》2012年第5期66-68,83,共4页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：将市场竞争引入电力系统,企业竞争性得到提高,资源利用效率将得到改善。准确的月负荷预测可以提高电力系统的社会效益和经济效益,而负荷预测误差风险直接影响供电的安全性和稳定性。本文考虑到季节成分对月负荷预测的影响,基于季节变差以及季节比例理论建立短期负荷预测的指数平滑模型,并对月负荷原始数据进行预测。通过对蒙东电力的算例分析验证了本文所提出方法的合理性和可行性。With the introduction of market competition,the enterprise competition and the efficiency of resource will be improved.Accurate monthly load forecasting can improve power system economic benefit and social benefit,and the error of load forecasting risk directly affects the safety and stability of power supply.This paper established the short-term load forecasting exponential smoothing model based on the seasonal variation and seasonal ratio theory,and predict the raw load forecast data.For Mongolian East network to carry out analysis,the results show that the proposed method is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：电力市场 月负荷预测 典型产业 季节变差 季节比例 指数平滑 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]