内蒙古地区干旱风险评估  

Drought Risk Assessment in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：付丽娟[1,2] 宫春宁 德勒格日玛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [2]内蒙古气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2012年第2期11-16,共6页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：分析了形成旱灾风险的有关因素,表明旱灾风险不仅与缺雨程度及持续时间有关,而且还有明显的季节性差异。用单位评价期内的降水距平百分率反映缺雨程度,用作物和生态系统不同季节的缺雨敏感度反映干旱影响的季节性差异,并以干旱持续期内单位时段旱灾风险的累加反映其累积效应,从而建立起旱灾风险的识别指数。应用旱灾风险指数对60年来内蒙古的旱灾风险进行了初步评估。给出了各级旱灾发生的概率,并统计出及各级旱灾对应的后果。对影响范围大、跨经两个以上作物生长年份、最大旱灾风险指数双倍于特旱的极端干旱在内蒙古的发生情况进行了分析。结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以来,内蒙古的极端干旱过程在逐渐东扩,内蒙古东部地区的旱灾出现了增多增强的趋势。It is indicated that drought risk is related to the lack of rain level and duration of rain via analyzing the relevant factors of the risk of drought. The impact of drought have the cumulative effect and obvious seasonal variations .In order to establish the identi- fication index of drought risk, lack of rain level is reflected by the percentage of the rainfall anomaly, sensitivity of the lack of rain to crops and ecosystem in different seasons reflects seasonal variations of effects of drought, accumulating the drought risk in unit time during the drought period reflects it＇s accumulative effects. A preliminary assessment for drought risk in Inner Mongolia over past 60 years has conducted in the support of application of drought risk index. In this article has given probabilities of drought occurrences at all levels and all corresponding consequences of drought events. Through analyzing extreme drought in Inner Mongolia with broad influenced range, across more than two crop growth years and the maximum drought risk index is as much as two times of severe drought, the results show that extreme drought process of Inner Mongolia has gradually eastward expanded and the eastern region of Inner Mongolia has appeared the trend of increasing drought since the mid-1980s .

关 键 词：干旱风险 辨识指标 缺雨敏感度 风险评估 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]