直驱式风电机组试运行中的可靠性增长评估  

RELIABILITY GROWTH ASSESSMENT OF DIRECT-DRIVE WIND TURBINE IN THE TRIAL OPERATION

作　　者：郭建英[1] 孙永全[1] 刘新华[1] 王铭义[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学测控技术与通信工程学院,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2012年第5期757-762,共6页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60072002);国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2009AA042407)

摘　　要：以兆瓦级直驱式风力发电设备为对象,研究了研制阶段或试运行阶段机组可靠性增长的评估方法。依据可靠性增长及Bayes理论,结合直驱式风电机组现场试运行的工程背景,探讨了利用多台同步增长AMSAA模型评估风电机组可靠性增长的方法,并利用历史先验知识扩充信息量,重点讨论了均匀先验下AMSAA模型的Bayes置信限,并与经典置信限、无信息先验下的Bayes置信限进行对比。结果表明:试运行中的机组可靠性达到预定要求,用本方法对机组可靠性增长进行动态实时分析是合理的,且均匀先验下Bayes置信区间相对优于经典置信区间和无信息先验下的Bayes置信区间。A reliability growth assessment method was proposed for MW level direct-drive wind turbine in the development phase or in the trial operation phase. The reliability growth analysis method of wind turbine was studied based on multiple simultaneous growths AMSAA model, according to reliability growth and Bayes theory, combining with the background that a certain domestic direct-drive type wind turbine was in trial operation in the site. The information amount was expended using the priori knowledge of history, and then Bayes confidence limits were focused on the uniform priori information, and were compared with classical confidence limits and Bayes confidence limits without priori information. The results show that the reliability of the wind turbine achieves the intended re- quirements, the present method is efficient to deal with the dynamic real-time analysis on the wind turbine, and the Bayes confidence intervals under uniform priori information are better than under non-prior information.

关 键 词：风力发电机组 可靠性增长 AMSAA模型 Bayes置信限 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]