农村劳动力迁移选择决策的模糊多目标模型分析  

Fuzzy Multi-Objecetive Models for Rural Labor Migration Decision

作　　者：王春蕊[1] 刘昌宇[2] 刘家强[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北省社会科学院农村经济研究所助理研究员 [2]西南石油大学经济管理学院本科生 [3]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心教授、博士生导师

出　　处：《人口研究》2012年第3期50-61,共12页Population Research

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB2011QR53)的资助

摘　　要：借鉴模糊多目标决策理论,构建信息无偏和信息有偏条件下农村劳动力迁移选择决策的模糊多目标模型,并利用河北省问卷调查数据,选取相关指标对理论模型进行了应用分析。研究得出,面对多种迁移选择,无论是信息无偏还是信息有偏,受外出务工收入水平、家庭环境、个人能力等因素的影响,县外市内迁移成为劳动者最满意的选择。从实地调查情况看,劳动者以本县内迁移为主,占调查样本总数的39.32%。理论模型的分析结果与农村劳动力以县内迁移为主的实地调查结论存有差异。这表明,多数被调查农村劳动力尚未实现最优迁移,其迁移选择行为表现为一种有限理性。政府部门应积极采取有力措施,进一步优化决策环境,提高劳动者决策能力。This paper constructs fuzzy multi - objective decision models for destination selection of rural labor migration under unbiased and biased information, which are examined using survey data from Hebei Province. Theoretical models suggests that, when faced with multiple choices of destina- tion, whether under unbiased or biased information, the most satisfactory choice is outside the county but within the city due to a web of influences of income level, family environment and individual capa- bility. However, survey data show that nearly 40 percent of rural migrants choose their destinations within the county. The differences between theoretical models and empirical results suggest that most of the investigated rural labor migrants did not achieve optimal migration, and their migration behavior ex- hibited limited rationality.

关 键 词：信息无偏 信息有偏 模糊多目标模型 农村劳动力迁移 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.6