我国能源生产与出口贸易协整关系分析  

China's Creative Financing Mechanism Innovation Strategy Analysis of Agriculture

作　　者：周旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2012年第6期7-10,共4页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173017);北京市自然科学基金(9112013;9092015)

摘　　要：随着经济的快速发展,我国能源消费大幅增加,尤其是生产能源消费量的年均增长率,已经超过了总能源消费量的年均增长率。大量的能源消费,所带来的碳排放问题不容忽视。与此同时,我国自改革开放以来,经济发展采用的是投资拉动型和出口推动型。尤其是出口贸易额的年均增长率,已经超过了GDP的年均增长率。本文利用多元协整理论,在分析我国1980-2008年的能源消费与出口额二序列各自的特点基础上,进行了序列间协整关系的研究。研究结果表明:能源消费与出口额之间存在着包含其一阶滞后项在内的多元协整关系,能源消费本身有一种前向的自我推动力,而出口在对能源消费有着正向影响的同时还存在一种负向的反馈作用。最后,根据研究结果对改善我国能源消费和贸易结构提出了政策建议。Energy consumption, especially industrial energy consumption, has increased a lot because of the rapid development of Chinese economy. However, the large quantity of CO2 emission resulted from the massive energy consumption is an issue which cannot be- ignored. Since 1978, the development of Chinese economy is mainly driven by investment and export. The annual increasing rate of export has excelled that of GDP. According to multivariate co-integration theory, after the pre-research on the series of 1980-2008 energy consumption and export, the co-integration relationship has been found among the two and their one-order lag. The result of research has shown that, energy consumption is self-motivated, and on which export has both positive and negative influence. Lastly, advice has been given to improve energy consumption status duo and trading structures according to the research.

关 键 词：生产能源消费 格兰杰因果 出口贸易 贸易结构 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]