总供求视角下的人民币均衡汇率  

RMB equilibrium exchange rate from aggregate supply-demand perspective

作　　者：温军伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行货币政策二司

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2012年第5期13-17,共5页China Money

摘　　要：文章在宏观经济学总供给一总需求框架的基础上，建立了人民币均衡汇率的需求缺口模型，指出“均衡汇率”应该是一个区间，合意的汇率水平是内部平衡和外部平衡权衡的结果。中国应将国内平衡作为优先目标，根据国内平衡的需要适时调整汇率政策。中长期内，随着中国内外需求格局的转变，人民币汇率双向弹性增强并保持适度升值可能是合理和有益的。This article builds up a demand gap model for the RMB equilibrium exchange rate based on the aggregate demand-supply framework, and states that the ＂equilibrium exchange rate＂ should be a band and the acceptable exchange rate results from the internal and external balance trade-off. China should give priority to domestic balance and adjust exchange rate policy subject to the requirement of domestic balance. In the mid- and long-term, following the domestic and overseas demand pattern changes, it may be appropriate and beneficial to strengthen the two-way fluctuations of RMB exchange rate and maintain a moderate RMB appreciation.

关 键 词：总供求缺口 内外平衡 人民币均衡汇率 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]