马尔柯夫模型在预测吉林省西部土地盐碱化发展趋势中的应用  

Applicaiton of the Markov Model in Forecast of Soil Salinization in West of Jilin Province

作　　者：杨越[1] 杜会石[1] 哈斯[1] 张萍[1] 吴霞[1] 杨一[1] 安晶[1] 任本超 李元[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875 [2]河北省水利水电工程监理咨询中心,河北石家庄050051 [3]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《湖南农业科学》2012年第5期60-64,共5页Hunan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201004018);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金联合资助

摘　　要：以土地盐碱化严重的吉林省西部为研究区,采用时间尺度为10 a的1993年和2003年两期遥感影像,结合野外调研、各种图件和文字资料,利用GIS软件人机交互式解译提取包括盐碱地在内的土地利用类型信息,通过空间分析和统计分析确定各土地利用类型间相互转移情况,并以此为基础运用马尔柯夫模型预测和分析吉林省西部土地利用变化趋势。结果表明:在土地盐碱化保持当前发展状态下,2050年该区盐碱地面积将达到369 877.16 hm2。因此,土地盐碱化问题不容忽视,须采取有效措施,维护该区生态环境健康发展。卡方检验表明,模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合,用该模型进行土地盐碱化预测是可行的。预测结果具有参考意义。The west of Jilin Province in China was taken as the study area.By using TM image in 1993 and TM image in 2003 from landsat satellite and integrating field survey,all kinds of maps and text data,soil salinization information for the west of Jilin Province were extracted by man-computer interactive interpretation method in Arcinfo GIS software.By statistic analysis and spatial analysis of the data,the primitive status matrix and the transition probability matrix of different land use types from 1993 to 2003 were acquired.Based on the statistic data,the change trend of the salinization soil was forecasted and analyzed by the Markov model.The results showed that the salinization in study area is quite severe.If current development trend is kept,the area of salinization will be 369 877.16 hm2 in 2050.Therefore,the question of soil salinization should not be ignored,and effective measures should be taken to maintain healthy development of environment.The chi-square test indicated that the model was efficient and suitable for prediction.

关 键 词：盐碱化预测 马尔柯夫模型 吉林省西部 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] P942[天文地球—自然地理学]