2010-2011年我国通货膨胀成因分析与实证检验  

An Analysis and Empirical Test of the Causes of China's Inflation(2010-2011)

作　　者：周沫[1] 张紫鹏[2] 周宗安[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266510 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财政学院学报》2012年第3期31-39,共9页Journal of Shandong Finance Institute

基　　金：山东省科技攻关项目"基于经济资本的商业银行内部控制研究"(2010G0020809);山东省自然基金项目"我国商业银行经济资本配置研究"(ZR2011GL007);山东财经大学博士基金项目"基于制度非均衡视角的现代农村金融制度研究"

摘　　要：2010-2011年我国通货膨胀的成因是多方面的。总体而言,主要包括大宗商品带来的外部输入因素、逆经济风向的相机抉择机制引致的内部政策因素、经济转型升级过程中的成本推动因素以及未来预期因素。选取6个指标,运用因子分析进行实证检验,得出了"外部输入因素、内部政策因素、成本推动因素、未来预期因素对本轮通货膨胀的贡献为83.97%"的结论。为此,我国应制定科学合理的防通货膨胀政策,特别是要考虑到经济转型升级过程中的成本推动因素,以促进我国经济高速平稳发展。There are various causes for China＇ s inflation from 2010 to 2011, which mainly include external input factors brought by bulk commodity; internal policy factors brought by discretion mechanism contradictive to economic wind ; cost - push factors in the process of economic transformation and upgrading, and anticipated factors in future. This paper makes an empirical test on six indicators selected through factor analysis, drawing the conclusion that the above mentioned four groups of factors have contributed to 83.97% of the inflation. Therefore, the government of China should establish scientific and reasonable anti-inflation policies in order to develop its economy in a high-speed and steady way, specifically putting cost-push factors in the process of the economic transformation and upgrading into consideration.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 实证检验 因子分析 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]