高速铁路、公路建设的财政投资效益研究——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的分析  

Comparative Study of Government Investment Returns between High-speed Railway and Highway Construction: A CGE Analysis

作　　者：庄序莹[1] 侯敬雯[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第6期43-49,共7页Finance & Trade Economics

摘　　要：近年政府加大对高速铁路的建设和投资,以此来拉动经济的增长,此种财政对准公共品的投资是否有效值得关注。本文试图探究高铁与公路建设的经济效益问题,在一般均衡理论的框架下,构建了符合我国当前经济现状的CGE模型。经过模拟分析,发现高铁、公路投资的增加对经济体具有显著的正向作用,符合经济效益原则。相比更为完善的公路建设状况,铁路的投资具有更大的乘数效应,由此证实了当前政府大力推动高铁建设对经济的拉动作用,并对高铁投资的较高乘数效应做了经济学解释。In recent years, the government increases huge investments in high-speed railway construction as a way to stimulate economic growth. This paper attempts to explore the investment effectiveness in high-speed railway construction and highway construction. In the framework of general equilibrium theory, the authors constructed a CGE model under current economic situation. Through simulation analysis, the model found that the investments of highspeed railway and highway have significant positive effects on economic growth and employment, which are in line with the principles of investment returns. With further comparative analysis, the authors found that current railway investment has a greater multiplier effect compared to more perfect road construction. Therefore, it can be verified that the Government has made right investments in HSR in recent years. Furthermore, the authors made an economic explanation of the multiplier effect of high-speed rail construction investment.

关 键 词：高铁公路财政投资效益CGE 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F224