基于时间序列分析的渐变性水源水质预测研究  

Water Quality Forecast for a Gradually Changeable Water Source Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：李冬[1] 周川[1] 袁朋飞[1] 王曼[1] 姜松[1] 张杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学水质科学与水环境恢复工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124 [2]哈尔滨工业大学城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2012年第6期184-188,共5页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项水专项资助课题(2008ZX07208-003;2008ZX07420-004-BJUT001;2008ZX07208-005-003;2009ZX07424-001);城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室开放基金(QAK201005);国家自然科学基金(50878003);北京市自然科学基金(8092006);北京工业大学第九届研究生科技基金项目(ykj-2011-5407;ykj-2011-5405)

摘　　要：针对引黄水库水质渐变性特点,运用时间序列分析理论建立了水质分析模型并对山东省某市某水库的水质变化趋势进行模拟和预测。选取温度、pH、氨氮、浊度、化学耗氧量、亚硝酸盐作为预测变量。水库水质的模拟结果表明除浊度外其余项准确率均达到了80%以上,所建立的水质模型能够合理地反映渐变性水库中水质的动态变化趋势,预测结果较好。The water source in this paper refers to a reservoir in the Yellow River basin, which supplies water to a city in Shandong Province and has undergone change of water quality. Time series analysis was used to develop a water quality model that could simulate and predict the reservoir＇s water quality, in which parameters such as temperature, pH, ammonia nitrogen, nitrites, turbidity and COD, were chosen as analog variables. Results of the simulation showed that the accuracy of simulation （prediction ratio） reached 80% and more for nearly all the parameters except for turbidity. As a whole, the model could reflect the dynamic water quality variation of the reservoir.

关 键 词：时间序列 渐变性 水质模型 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]