加速中国益贫式增长的宏观经济政策模拟及其调整思路  

Macro-economic Policy Simulation and Adjustment Thoughts on Accelerating China′s Pro-Poor Growth

作　　者：刘畅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共政策研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2012年第3期28-34,共7页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国益贫式增长的绩效评价与路径优化研究"(71103029);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目"以政府公共福利促进益贫式增长的绩效评价与制度安排"(09YJC790030)

摘　　要：运用情景模拟方法,对2012～2020年中国经济发展的前景进行模拟分析,从而分析加速益贫式增长的宏观政策调整思路。研究结果表明,在益贫式增长与危机情景下,贸易条件、汇率、利率、财政和货币政策、公共支出等宏观经济政策的调整方向与幅度对低收入人群福利、投资、消费水平均有显著影响。在面对经济危机冲击时,如何调整宏观经济政策是能否在实现经济增长同时提高低收入群体福利的关键,通过政策情景设定及模拟分析给出了方向和思路。The paper analyzes China＇s economic development from 2012 to 2020 with the simulation method and finds out the macro - economic policies and adjustment thoughts on accelerating China＇s pro - poor growth. Research results show that under the background of pro - poor growth, the adjustment of macro -economic policies such as trade conditions, exchange rates, in- terest, financial and monetary policy, public expenditure have significant influence on the welfare, investment, and consumption ability of low level income groups. When facing the impact of economic crisis, how to adjust macro - economic policy is the key to improve the welfare of low level income groups while achieving economic growth. Some suggestions are proposed based on the setting and simulation of scenario analysis.

关 键 词：益贫式增长 宏观经济政策 模拟 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]