基于切机指标的电力系统暂态风险评估  

Power System Transient Instability Risk Assessment Based on Generator Curtailment Index

作　　者：李立 惠建峰 李鹏 迟方德 

机构地区：[1]陕西省电力公司,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《陕西电力》2012年第5期9-13,共5页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2004CB217907)

摘　　要：分析了电力系统暂态失稳的机理,提出了以切机作为手段的暂态稳定紧急控制策略,建立了故障类型、系统结构、负荷水平、故障分布、故障在线路的位置、故障切除时间等6个影响电力系统暂态稳定性的随机因素的概率分布模型,最后提出了考虑上述随机因素的暂态失稳风险评估算法。该算法以蒙特卡洛模拟为基础,以切机期望的方差系数作为抽样结束的判据。仿真结果表明切机期望作为系统风险衡量指标是合理的,负荷水平和故障切除时间对风险有明显影响,其他因素的影响很小。The mechanism of power system instability is analyzed in this paper, and then the transient stability emergency control based on generator curtailment is proposed. After that, the probability models of 6 random factors which affect the power system transient stability-the failure type, the system structure, the load level, the distribution of failures, the position of failure at the line, the clear time are established. Then power system instability risk assessment algorithm including these factors is proposed. This algorithm is based on the Mete-Carlo simulation, and the variance coefficient of expected generator curtailment is used as criterion of algorithm ending. The affection of several important factors on the risk is simulated at last. The result shows that the expected generator curtailment is suitable to assessment system risk. The risk is affected obviously by the load level and the clear time, and other random factors have little affection.

关 键 词：电力系统 随机因素 暂态失稳 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]