21世纪增暖情景下西北太平洋热带气旋频数的预估  

Projection of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over Western North Pacific Under SRES A2,B1 Scenarios in 21st Century

作　　者：何洁琳[1,2] 管兆勇[2] 钱代丽[2] 廖雪萍 

机构地区：[1]广西区域气候中心,南宁530022 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2012年第3期190-197,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2007BAC29B02);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-25);广西自然科学基金项目(2010GXNSFA013010)

摘　　要：利用IPCC发布的5个全球气候模式在高(SRESA2)、低(SRES B1)两种不同排放情景下的预报集成结果,对21世纪大尺度环境进行分析,进而对西北太平洋夏季热带气旋(TC)的频数进行预估。结果表明:两种情景下热带西北太平洋均呈现500 hPa位势高度偏高、太平洋东部海表温度偏高、低层菲律宾以东为异常反气旋性环流控制的特征。这种大尺度环境不利于TC生成,在高排放情景下或21世纪中叶后该环境特征更显著。未来TC频数总体呈减少的趋势,低排放情景下的TC频数变化趋势比高排放情境下平缓,TC频数存在年代际和年际变化。Using the forecasts of the five general circulation models distributed by the IPCC,the large-scale environment over the western North Pacific（WNP） under the high（SRES A2） and low（SRES B1） emission scenarios in the 21st century are projected.The results show that the 500 hPa geopotential height over the tropical WNP and the sea surface temperature,especially in the east-central tropic Pacific,both will be above normal.Furthermore,the low-level anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation will cover the region east to the Philippines in the 21st century.Thus the large-scale environment will not be conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones（TCs）,and such an environment will be more remarkable under the SRES A2 scenario or after the mid-21st century.The frequency of TC will possibly decline,but the decreasing trend under the SRES B1 scenario will be weaker than that under the SRES A2.There will still be interdecadal and interannual fluctuations of TC frequency in the 21st century.

关 键 词：热带气旋 趋势 情景 预估 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]