我国物流成本与GDP的关系——基于时间序列模型的实证分析  

Relationship between logistics costs and GDP in China: postive analysis based on time series

作　　者：张亮亮[1] 周石鹏[1] 张洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《科技与管理》2012年第3期99-103,共5页Science-Technology and Management

摘　　要：利用Eviews软件对1991—2011年间物流成本与GDP数据取对数之后进行平稳性检验,协整检验及恩格尔-格兰杰检验(AEG),估计出物流成本和GDP的数量关系式,另外还对物流成本和GDP的对数值进行VAR模型估计和ECM模型检验。研究结果显示:在研究时期内,我国的物流成本与GDP之间存在协整的关系和双向因果关系。对产生这种双向因果关系的原因进行了分析,并进一步为我国发展经济和降低社会物流成本提供了相应的政策建议。The paper carries out the stationarity test,co-integrated test and the AEG test for the data of logistics costs and GDP in 1991-2011 in China after logarithmic by Eviews software,estimate the number relationship between logistics costs and GDP,then takes the VAR model estimation and ECM model test. The result shows that logistics costs and GDP have co-integrated relationship and mutual relationship in the study period in China. This paper also analyses the reasons behind the empirical results,and gives the corresponding advices to develop the economy and reduce the logistics costs.

关 键 词：物流成本 GDP 协整 VAR 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]