近50年来榆林市气候变化特征及其对气候生产力的影响研究  

Study on Characteristic of Climatic Variation in Yulin City in Recent 50 Years and Its Impact on Climate Productivity

作　　者：方兰[1] 延军平[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2012年第5期148-152,166,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构;机理与适应对策"(D010106)

摘　　要：利用1961～2010年榆林市逐月气温、降水资料,分析了榆林市的气候变化特征;利用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了该区域气候生产力,通过二元回归模型分析了气候生产力的演变特征。结果表明:近50年来,榆林全年及四季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤以冬季平均气温上升显著;降水量年际波动剧烈而总体变化趋势不大;de Martonne干燥度呈现下降趋势。气候生产力呈现微弱的增长趋势,年降水量是影响气候生产力的主要因素,其与气候生产力间存在极显著的正相关关系,当榆林年均气温上升1℃、年降水量上升1 mm时,榆林气候生产力将上升21.5 kg/(hm2.a)。In order to reveal the characteristics of the climatic variation in Yulin city,the monthly air temperature and precipitation data during 1961~2010 in Yulin city were analyzed,Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the climate productivity in this area,and the evolution characteristics of the climate productivity was analyzed by using bivariate regression model.The results showed that： in recent 50 years,the annual mean air temperature and seasonal mean air temperature all increased obviously,especially the winter mean air temperature;the yearly fluctuation of the annual precipitation was tempestuous,while its whole change trend was little;the annual de Martonne aridity had a decreasing trend.The climate productivity had a weak rising trend,the annual precipitation was the main factor affecting the climate productivity in this area,and the positive correlation between the annual precipitation and climate productivity was extremely significant.The climate productivity in Yulin would increase by 21.5 kg/（hm2·a）,if the annual mean air temperature increased by 1 ℃,while the annual precipitation increased by 1 mm.

关 键 词：气候暖干化 气候生产力 榆林市 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]