山洞油库地下管沟油气泄漏聚集量的预测研究  

Research on the Prediction for Oil-gas Mixture Accumulation in the Ditch of Underground Oil Depot

作　　者：周毅[1] 赵晓刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军后勤工程学院军事供油工程系,重庆401311

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2012年第3期96-99,共4页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：在分析山洞油库具体空间结构和狭长受限空间内油气蔓延规律与特性的基础上,分别采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和一元线性回归模型对山洞油库地下管沟中的油气聚集量进行了预测,并应用MATLAB软件对预测模型进行编程以简化数学运算,通过对比分析两种预测模型的预测结果与预测误差可以得出:对山洞油库油气聚集量这种近似呈线性增长的预测对象而言,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型比一元线性回归模型具有更高的预测精度,且可确定油气达到爆炸下限的时间以及反映油气浓度变化的规律,以为山洞油库安全状态评估与决策提供依据。This paper analyzes the spatial structure of underground oil depot and the laws and features of oil-gas mixture spreading in the long narrow confined space,and then uses the one element linear regression model and the grey prediction model to predict the accumulation of oil-gas mixture in the ditch of underground oil depot.MATLAB software is used to program such models to simplify mathematical operations.Through the comparative analysis of the predicted results and errors,it can be concluded that the grey GM（1,1） model has a higher accuracy than one element linear regression model in the application of prediction to the accumulation of oil-gas mixture which is basically in the linear growth.So it can reflect the growing laws of oil-gas mixture and the time in which the concentration of oil-gas mixture arrives the lower explosion limit（LEL）,and give the basic assessment of safety state in underground oil depot.

关 键 词：山洞油库 油气泄漏 油气聚集量 灰色预测 一元线性回归模型 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X924.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]