提高能效 低碳发展 携手应对能源挑战——《BP2030世界能源展望》解读  

Improve energy efficiency and low-carbon development to meet energy challenges——On reading "BP Energy Outlook 2030"

作　　者：王勇[1] 王立敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋石油总公司 [2]<国际石油经济>编辑部

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2012年第4期14-20,125,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2012年版《BP2030世界能源展望》显示:到2030年,全球一次能源消费将较2010年增长39%,年均增速为1.6%,几乎所有的(96%)消费增长都来自非经合组织国家。尽管可再生能源增速最快(年均增长8.2%),2030年化石能源仍将在一次能源消费结构中占80%的份额。全球液体燃料(石油、生物燃料和其他液体燃料)2030年需求总量将超过1.03亿桶/日,新增需求(1600万桶/日)几乎全部来自非经合组织国家,并主要由欧佩克和美洲国家的供应来满足。天然气将成为消费增长最快的化石燃料,年均增长为2.1%,液化天然气和非常规气将在供应中发挥重要作用。中印发展速度、规模以及中东的供应能力对2030年全球能源前景意义重大。到2030年,南北美洲将基本实现能源独立,亚太地区的能源缺口却不断扩大。这提醒我们:必须不断提高能源利用效率,降低单位GDP能源强度;加强与其他国家和地区的能源合作;对非常规资源应加强科技攻关和国际合作,实现其科学发展和持续发展;保障能源安全稳定供应并逐步实现低碳发展。The 2012 edition of 'BP Energy Outlook 2030' indicates that:By 2030,global primary energy consumption will grow by 1.6% per annum,adding 39% to global consumption in 2010;almost all(96%) of the growth is in non-OECD countries;although renewable energy is the fastest growing energy(at 8.2% per annum),fossil energy still accounts for 80% of primary energy consumption;global demand for liquid fuels(oil,biofuel and other liquid fuel) will exceed 103 million barrels per day by 2030;new demand(16 million barrels per day),almost all of which is from non-OECD countries,will be met by supply from OPEC and the Americas.Natural gas,with a growth rate of 2.1% per annum,will be the fastest growing fossil fuel;and liquefied natural gas and unconventional gas will play an important part in supply.The pace and scale of development in China and India,and the oil & gas supply capacity of the Middle East will play a major role in shaping the global energy outlook in 2030.By 2030,North America and South America will basically achieve energy independence,while the energy deficit in the Asia-Pacific region will further widen.This means that:We must continuously improve energy efficiency to reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP;we should enhance energy cooperation with other countries and regions;strengthen technological research and international cooperation to ensure the scientific and sustained development of unconventional resources;we should guarantee the safe and stable supply of energy,and promote low carbon development.

关 键 词：2030年 能源 消费 供应 液体燃料 石油 天然气 煤炭 中国 印度 能源 强度 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]