近年来中国服务业增长平缓现象探究——中国服务业增长的瓶颈期、拐点与影响因素  

A Study on the Slow Growth Phenomenon of China's Service Industry in Recent Years—— Analyses of the Bottleneck Peri- od,Inflection Point and Decisive Factors

作　　者：邓于君[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《华南师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第2期80-87,158,共8页Journal of South China Normal University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：2010年度国家社会科学基金项目"‘十二五’时期优化产业结构的难点与对策研究"(10CJY001);2008年度教育部人文社会科学研究项目"服务业内部结构演进趋势的内在机理与实证研究"(08JC790041)

摘　　要：发达国家与新兴经济体的经验表明:工业化中后期,人均收入虽较前期提高,但服务业增加值比重增长缓慢,甚至可能回落。服务业增长存在瓶颈期。2000-2009年,中国服务业增加值比重增长平缓,原因正在于此。经估测,中国服务业增长拐点约在"十二五"后期,经此拐点后,中国服务业突破瓶颈期,增加值比重将加速增长。计量分析可测定影响服务业比重的重要因素。由此引申出政策含义:抓住拐点时机,积极改进影响增长的要素,推动服务业顺利步入比重增长的加速期。The experiences of both developed countries and emerging economies show that,in the middle and late stage of industrialization,the per capita income,though,rises in relatively early days,the increase proportion of the service industry shows slow growth,and is likely to fall down. There is a bottleneck period in the growth of service industry,which is the reason why,from 2000 to 2009,China's service industry increases added value proportion gently. By estimation,the inflection point of the growth of China's service industry is in the late'Twelfth Five-Year Plan'period. After the inflection point,the service industry of China will break through the bottleneck period,and value proportion will accelerate the growth. Econometric analysis shows important factors that influence the proportion of service industry. This provides policy implications: seize the opportunity of the inflection point, improve these decisive factors,and promote the growth of proportion of service industry well into acceleration period.

关 键 词：服务业 增加值比重 瓶颈期 拐点 影响因素 

分 类 号：F127.4[经济管理—世界经济]