我国货币政策目标间因果反馈及仿真——基于系统动力学视角  

Cause and Effect Feedback and Simulation of the Objectives of China's Monetary Policy——From the Perspective of System Dynamics

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 张伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《吉首大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第2期87-96,共10页Journal of Jishou University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11BJY147);教育部人文社科基金项目(10YJA90110);中国博士后科学基金项目(20110490239);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2009HL016)

摘　　要：我国货币政策的目标之间相互影响,共同调控经济的发展。经济发展系统遵循因果规律,具有动态性、开放性、高度非线性、高阶次、多变量、多重反馈、复杂时变等特点。运用系统动力学构建经济发展系统的反馈模型、结构流图和方程,以计算机仿真和模拟为辅助手段,通过对相关参数的确定和调控模拟,揭示货币政策目标间的相互作用,为我国宏观经济政策的制定提供决策依据。The objectives of monetary policy in our country are interactive and co-regulative to influence economic development.Economic development is dynamic,open,highly nonlinear,highly order,multiple variable,multiple feedback,and complex in time-varying,following the rule of cause and effect.This paper,based on system dynamics,tries to construct models,flow diagrams,and equations for economic development.With the computer simulation to determine and control relevant parameters,interactions of the objectives of the monetary policy are revealed to provide reference for the decision-making in macro-economy.

关 键 词：货币政策 系统动力学 反馈 仿真 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]