工程项目主体行为风险预警的物元分析模型  

Matter-element Analysis Model for Subjects' Behavior Risk Early-warning Model of the Project

作　　者：李娟芳[1] 刘幸[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学土木建筑工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2012年第3期5-9,共5页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(201121002020005)

摘　　要：针对我国多数综合评价研究中存在的信息屏蔽和主观性问题,尝试采用物元分析法对我国工程项目主体行为风险进行预警评价,构建了包含6个准则层、16项具体指标的工程项目主体行为风险预警指标体系.为了方便专家对项目进行评价和更加有效地表达专家的评价信息,在专家采用语言变量对定性指标进行评价的基础上,运用三角模糊数将专家给出的各指标权重和定性评价结果进行量化和规范化,并在集结权重和评价值的基础上得到基于三角模糊数的权重向量和指标值向量,同时结合物元分析法中的综合关联度计算,确定预警风险等级.最后通过实证分析说明了具体运用过程,结果表明,该方法具有很强的实用性和借鉴价值.To solve the problem of asymmetric information and the influence of subjectivity in major integrated assessment researches, the method of matter-element analysis was used to evaluate the subjects＇ behavior risk of the project, the project risk early warning indicator system which contained criteria and 16 specific indicators was constructed. In order to evaluate conveniently by experts and express experts＇ evaluation information well and truly, triangular fuzzy number was introduced into the model to quantify and standardize the index weight and evaluation results which were given by the experts after the experts evaluated qualitative indicators by linguistic variables, and the weight vector and index vector were obtained based on triangular fuzzy number after assembling the weight and the value, then combined with the comprehensive correlation calculation of matter-element analysis the early -warning of risk was determined. Finally, empirical analysis demonstrates the specific application process, and the conclusion shows that this method is very practical and reference value.

关 键 词：工程项目 主体行为风险 物元分析 三角模糊数 风险预警 

分 类 号：TU723[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]